On August 3, the key annual conference for the global apple business Prognosfruit 2023, was held in Trento, Italy, where production forecasts for the new season for all countries are traditionally announced. The event also presented a forecast from EastFruit for Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, and other countries of the Caucasus, as well as Central Asia.
“Despite the forecast for a decrease in apple production in the EU countries, on the sidelines among representatives of the region’s producer organizations, there were mostly positive expectations from the beginning of the season,” says Andriy Yarmak, an economist at the Investment Center of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), who presented the EastFruit team’s forecasts at the event.
“The main reasons for optimism, in addition to a decrease in the apple harvest, which will positively affect prices, were also the extremely low stocks of apples in EU storage facilities at the end of the season, the relatively high starting level of apple prices, expectations for another low apple harvest in China, the recent collapse in apple production in India, as well as a very positive situation in the world market for apple concentrate with the prospect of further price growth, which will contribute to the sale of large volumes of low-quality apple for processing. Also, the good news is a significant reduction in container freight prices, which greatly simplifies trade,” explains Andriy Yarmak.
However, he notes that there is a lot of negative news. “First of all, I want to note a truly alarming trend for all apple-producing countries – in the 2022/23 season, apple consumption in the EU has again dropped sharply. And this happened against the background of not having the best economic situation when consumers had to save. However, an apple is already practically the cheapest fruit on the shelf!” says Andriy Yarmak.
In his opinion, another negative news for EU growers is the ongoing problems with the access of EU apples to the Egyptian market. Egypt is constantly looking for ways to restrict imports of goods to balance the balance of payments, industry officials said. Therefore, Egypt’s latest “innovation” was the inclusion of an apple in the “luxury goods” category, subject to additional import duty.
Andriy Yarmak also notes that in 2023 EastFruit countries will face new difficulties in the apple market. It will be especially difficult for Moldova if the forecasts of apple production growth are confirmed. After all, efforts to diversify exports do not give quick results because it requires the replacement of both varieties and growing technologies, not just improvement methods. The difficult situation in Ukraine is also stable, which still cannot unblock its ports and eliminate russian invaders’ occupation of part of the territories.
At the same time, there is hope for activating apple supplies from Turkey and Iran towards India, which may reduce the pressure on fresh apple prices in the region. In particular, even if the apple harvest in Uzbekistan increases, prices for quality apples may rise to stimulate imports. However, the main positive news is the possibility of obtaining good revenue for the sale of low-quality apples for processing. Unfortunately, the percentage of such an apple in EastFruit countries is still high, impacting growers’ income.
