According to EastFruit, potato growers in key EU countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium continue to lower their yield forecasts. This trend could result in record prices for both table potatoes and those used in frozen French fries production.
Farmers have reported that the extremely unfavorable weather conditions of 2023, characterized by a hot and dry summer followed by a very rainy autumn, have significantly impacted the quality of table potatoes. Seed potatoes have also been affected. In 2024, farmers who received seed potatoes under contracts for processing found that these seeds had lower than usual yield potential. Consequently, many processors have had to revise their contractual supply obligations downward.
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Adverse weather conditions have continued to pose challenges in 2024. In northern EU countries, particularly Belgium and the Netherlands, farmers were forced to delay potato planting, likely resulting in a delayed harvest. Additionally, potato fields have been more severely affected than usual by late blight and other diseases and pests. This has already created market tension, with prices currently at historically high levels.
Despite the European Commission’s continuous downward revisions of the EU’s potato yield forecast, the yield may still be close to the average figures of the past five years. However, to stabilize the market and reduce prices to more acceptable levels, potato production in the EU would need to be approximately 3-5% higher, according to our rough estimates.
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