China, a long-term leader in the world ranking of fresh apple exporters, has sharply reduced export volumes in the 2022/23 season. Thus, according to EastFruit analysts, we will definitely have a new leader of the world apple export rating in the current season.
“It is most likely that Italy will be a new global apple export leader in 2022/23. There is also a high probability that Poland will overtake China in terms of apple export volumes. Iran, which was approaching the leading positions in previous seasons exporting nearly as much apples as China, on the contrary, will go down in the rankings, as apple exports from Iran fell even more sharply than exports from China,” says Andriy Yarmak, an economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
It is symbolic that in 2023 it is Italy that will host the largest apple conference Prognosfruit 2023, where apple production and trade forecasts from different parts of the world are traditionally announced. Andriy Yarmak will make a presentation at this event on the prospects for production and prices for apples and pears in Ukraine, countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia.
The main reason for the decline in apple exports from China, according to EastFruit analysts, is lower yields due to several weather anomalies. According to various estimates, apple production in China has decreased by 4-5 million tons.
As a result, China’s apple exports for the 2022/23 season, according to EastFruit, could be around 750,000 tonnes, down 25% from the previous season. It will also be the smallest fresh apple exports from that country in many years.
It is interesting to note that Iran could reduce the volume of apple exports in the 2022/23 season by 40%, which will immediately drop it from the second to the seventh place in the world ranking.
By the way, Vietnam could become the main market for the Chinese apples for the first time in history. It is expected that Vietnam could overtake Indonesia in terms of apple import volumes. Also, large volumes of apple exports from China were noted to the markets of countries such as: Thailand, the Philippines, and Bangladesh. By the way, Uzbekistan took 12th place in the ranking of the most important markets for the Chinese apples, having increased its imports by 2.5 times over the year.
China’s apple imports also rose sharply during this period, confirming estimates of production decline. China is expected to import a record volume of apples, which will exceed 100,000 tons. The main suppliers of apples to China are traditionally New Zealand, South Africa, Chile, the USA, and France. Australia and Poland also export relatively small volumes of apples to China.
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