EastFruit experts conducted a survey among participants of the frozen raspberry market in Ukraine. The survey consisted of communications with leading freezing companies and farmers who grow raspberries on a commercial scale for freezing. We also held an anonymous survey among EastFruit telegram channel subscribers.
Please note that that the first fundamental raspberry price forecast was published by EastFruit team on March 1, 2024, and it was quite optimistic. However, market participants in Ukraine this time were extremely reluctant to share their forecasts and refused to be quoted. Therefore, let us first summarize the opinion of these key market experts.
The key freezers and farmers say that the raspberries in Ukraine overwintered quite well, with some exceptions in western Ukraine where recent frosts did cause some damage. The weather factor will most likely not have a significant impact on production volumes. At the same time, due to low prices last season, many growers did not invest in adequate treatment of plantings due to the shortages of financial resources. This is a negative factor that can reduce both raspberry production volumes and the quality of the raspberries. In addition, the ongoing mobilization is indeed a very negative factor, which creates huge problems with the workforce.
Most professionals of Ukrainian raspberry market believe that prices for high-quality raspberries for freezing during the 2024 season will increase by approximately 25-35% compared to the previous year and will reach 50-70 UAH/kg, which is around $1.2-$1.8 US dollars per kg.
It is interesting to note that subscribers of the EastFruit telegram channel also showed absolute solidarity with the market participants in raspberry price expectations, which is quite unusual. More than half of people who replied to the poll, 53% to be exact, expect that purchase prices for fresh raspberries for freezing purposes in Ukraine in 2024 will range from 40 to 69 UAH/kg.
At the same time, the largest number of respondents believe that prices are unlikely to exceed 49 UAH/kg (about $1.2 USD), which is obviously a consequence of the negative experience of the previous season. Only 17% of market participants could believe the price of 70-99 UAH/kg or even more than 100 UAH/kg (US $2.5).
Let us remind you that raspberry prices have a clear cyclical pattern, which we described very well in March 2023. Back then, we have very accurately predicted price trends for 2023 season based on our understanding of this very price cyclicality. Currently, there is a certain excitement in the market for frozen raspberries, pushing prices up.
“Many market participants in Ukraine, especially small farmers, find it very difficult to forecast prices of raspberries, because they only look at the situation in their region and less often in their country as a whole. However, in recent years, raspberries have become a truly global product, since they are exported frozen and prices for them are formed outside of Ukraine based on the global supply and demand situation, which means that it is impossible to forecast the price in Ukraine without understanding the global context,” explains Andriy Yarmak, economist at the Investment Centre of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO).
“In 2024, precisely thanks to the low prices of the previous two seasons, global demand for frozen raspberries began to recover again, while raspberry stocks by that time turned out to be relatively low. This has tilted the balance towards a supply shortage. Moreover, the deficit is observed in all quality segments of the frozen raspberry market. At the same time, in many countries the area under raspberries has decreased, making it even more difficult to meet the demand” says Andriy Yarmak.
According to EastFruit analysts, the average margin between the selling price of frozen raspberries and the purchasing price of fresh raspberries in Ukraine in the recent five years was about US $1.2 US dollars. With today’s price for class-A raspberries (95/5) reaching 3 euros per kg or $3.25 US dollars per kg, freezers will be able to pay suppliers much more than most market participants are currently forecasting.
Of course, you shouldn’t expect Ukrainian freezers to immediately raise the price. Moreover, the first attempts to reduce the price of raspberries in Poland and Ukraine have already been noted. However, these attempts were never successful, and the market will eventually dot the i’s.
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