EastFruit analysts report a collapse in wholesale onion prices in Tajikistan to the equivalent of 9 US cents per kg. Thus, since the end of onion harvesting, prices for onions have decreased by around 40% due to ample supply and unusually high stocks.
Let us recall that the majority of market participants were confident of the opposite – a sharp increase in onion prices after harvest was expected. However, EastFruit team warned that such forecasts for the countries of Central Asia may not come true, and that a collapse in onion prices could be a very real scenario in the current season. In particular, we described this situation in detail in the article “Will Uzbekistan be able to avoid a collapse in onion prices” back in August 2023, and even earlier in the article “Onion bubble or what will farmers do with onions from August onwards?”, published in June 2023. Nevertheless, a lot of entrepreneurs bought onions at harvest to store them until spring, expecting high gains.
“The situation with onion prices in Central Asian countries is currently much more optimistic than could be expected. Yes, prices have dropped significantly, and yes, those who bought onions to resell at a higher price are likely to suffer significant losses, but so far, onion prices have not collapsed. Although this does not mean that it will not happen in the coming weeks,” says Andriy Yarmak, an economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
By the way, 9 cents per kg is far from the lowest price for onions that was observed in Tajikistan. In 2021, in April, prices for old harvest onions that were not sold out even fell below 7 US cents per kg. By the way, after that Tajikistan saw record high prices for onions in the new season and even banned onion exports twice, as did most other countries in Central Asia.
Read also: “Sure bet” on profiting from onions did not work – prices are lower than at harvest time”
“Onion prices in Tajikistan are currently trending downward,” says Bakhtiyor Abduvokhidov, an international expert on the fruit and vegetable business. “However, one should take into consideration that the quoted price does not include product preparation for exports and necessary documentation. Batches of onions ready to export from Tajikistan will probably cost around US $120 per ton”, adds Mr Abduvokhidov.
Will Tajikistan be able to export onions to the EU, against the backdrop of rising prices for this product in the EU countries? Tajikistan already had similar experience several years ago. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that in the coming weeks the country will begin exporting onions to countries such as Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia and even the Czech Republic. Perhaps these deliveries will be carried out through the mediation of companies from Uzbekistan or Kazakhstan, which have more extensive experience in such trade and better logistics.
However, the situation on the onion market is very dynamic and unpredictable. Problems with onion exports from Europe and North Africa to the countries of Asia, East Africa and a number of countries in the Middle East due to attacks by the Yemeni Houthis, multiple bans on exports of onions in different countries, a shortage of quality onions in the EU, Russian aggression in Ukraine – all this may lead to sharp and unpredictable price changes for this product.
