On October 21, 2021, EastFruit wrote about the decision of the government of Uzbekistan to exempt the import of a range of fruits, including bananas, kiwis, citrus fruits, fresh apples, pears, quince and other fresh and dried fruits from customs duties. Prior to this, a customs duty rate of 10-20% was applied when importing these fruits, but not less than $0.2/kg.
One month has passed since the decision was announced by the government of the republic, and analysts are noting how it has de facto affected the wholesale prices over this time. Several fruits and vegetables from the list with a zero import duty are included in the EastFruit weekly wholesale price monitoring. These are bananas, oranges, mandarins, apples and pears. How have their wholesale prices changed?
Oranges
As you see from the chart, average wholesale prices for orange began to fall from November 10, 2021, and over the past two weeks, from November 5 to 19, they decreased from 30,000 UZS/kg ($2.81) to 20,000 UZS/kg ($1.86) i.e. by 50%.
As of November 19, 2021, the average wholesale prices for oranges in Uzbekistan are 31% lower than on the same date in 2020 and 9% lower than on the same date in 2019.
If wholesale prices for oranges repeat the same downward trend that was observed in November-December 2019-2020, then we can expect a further decline in their prices by the end of this year.
Mandarins
In contrast to oranges, the average wholesale prices for mandarins began to decline on the 20th of October. The average wholesale prices fell from 38,000 UZS/kg ($3.55) – the maximum price in the second half of 2021 recorded in mid-October, to 13,000 UZS/kg ($1.21) on 19 November 2021, i.e. almost 3 times. Obviously, the zeroing of customs duties was not the only reason for such a rapid fall in prices for mandarins, but it was one of its factors.
As of November 19, 2021, the average wholesale prices for mandarins are 2.5 times lower than on the same date in 2020, and 32% lower than on the same date in 2019.
Provided that wholesale prices for mandarins will repeat the same downward trend observed in November-December 2019-2020, we can expect a further decline in their prices by the end of this year.
Bananas
As in the case of oranges, the average wholesale prices for bananas began to fall on November 10, 2021, and over the past two weeks – from November 5 to 19, they decreased from 19,000 UZS/kg ($1.78) to 16,000 UZS/kg ($1.49), i.e. by 16%.
As of November 19, 2021, the average wholesale prices for bananas in Uzbekistan are 20% lower than on the same date in 2020 and 11% lower than on the same date in 2019.
If wholesale prices for oranges will repeat the same downward trend as in November-December 2019-2020, wholesale prices for bananas may be even lower by the end of 2021.
It is worth noting that current wholesale banana prices are in line with the lows recorded in January 2021.
As for apples and pears, so far no large reductions in wholesale prices have been noted.
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