Controversial downward revision of apple production forecast for Moldova – is it an attempt to boost prices?

At the final stage of the harvesting campaign in Moldova, the Moldova Fruct Association (MFA) has significantly reduced its forecast for the 2023 apple production in the country. Which came as a major surprise for the market participants. EastFruit recently spoke to many influential market participants in Moldova and most of them said that the apple production is likely to be higher than expected and close to the initial forecast of 548 thousand tons voiced at Prognosfruit conference.

The downward adjustment in the forecast from MFA came as a major surprise and sounds like an attempt of the association to support historically low level of apple prices in Moldova. Gala’s prices in the country are only close to US $0.35-0.36 per kg and prices of Golden aren’t much higher.

These prices are very low despite very good demand for industrial apples and relatively high prices on the global market. However, Moldova has traditionally focused on selling apples to Russia and the quality of apples accepted there does not satisfy consumers in the more demanding countries.

Read also: Shortage of export quality apples in Türkiye makes it source from Ukraine and Moldova

Possibly MFA is basing its estimates on the relatively modest export volumes in the period from July to November. We estimate that exports in this period would be less than 50 thousand tons. Also, reportedly, fresh apple stocks in fruit storage facilities are rather low. However, considering the positive price expectations, these estimates may prove to be wrong.

However, as a result, the Moldova Fruct Association forecasts that in the 2023-24 marketing year, Moldova will export approximately 185 thousand tons of fresh apples, which is 60 thousand tons more than during the previous season but significantly less than exports in the 2021-22 marketing year when Moldova managed to export 257 thousand tons of apples.