Donald Trump imposed tariffs on several countries this week, including a 10% increase on existing tariffs for China, raising the total to 20%. In response, China imposed a 15% tariff on billions of dollars worth of U.S. agricultural goods, FreshFruitPortal informs.
The ongoing trade tensions between the two countries are a familiar challenge for California’s almond industry, which was significantly impacted by Trump’s initial trade war in 2018.
Back then, tariffs and retaliation eliminated China as the number one U.S. almond export market. China’s levy hike from 10% to 25% caused almond prices to plunge by 40% to $1.40 per pound.
China is now the fourth largest export market for California almonds when it was once the first. Although California almonds struggled, the U.S.’s position as the dominant global supplier and the market’s diverse export roster helped soften the impact.
According to Researcher and Professor of Economics at the University of California Colin A. Carter’s report Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War on California Agriculture, “in the case of almonds and pistachios, the U.S. has 86% and 71% of world exports, respectively.”
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During the first trade war, the report shows, “all tree nut products in California experienced a drop in market share, with the U.S. market share for almonds dropping by more than 55%, from 97.4% to 44%,” concluding that although producers of almonds and pistachios substantially increased their exports to China again, “they also lost market shares in that growing market.”
India has been the top export market for California almonds since 2021/22. Over the past six years, shipments to India have more than doubled, increasing from 167 million pounds in 2016/17 to over 400 million pounds in 2023/24.
Now, tariffs are a front-and-center issue that agriculture exporters and growers have to worry about again. Rick Kushman, spokesperson for the Almond Board of California, says the state’s almond industry is monitoring things closely.
“Almond kernels and in-shell are not included in Canada’s retaliatory list; however, in China, a retaliatory duty of 10% was added to tree nuts including almond kernels, in-shell, and roasted, bringing the total duty to 35%,” Kushner said.
“While China continues to be an important market, California almonds are shipped to more than 100 destinations; therefore, maintaining a diverse export program is essential. We await more information from Mexico, which will be released on Sunday, March 9.”
He emphasized that the industry advocates “reducing barriers to trade and smooth market access for California almonds.”
Despite these challenges, the industry remains committed to expanding market opportunities, a strategy that has been in place with or without the threat of tariffs.
Kushman noted that efforts are underway to grow in emerging markets such as North Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America while also expanding initiatives in established markets, including the U.S., Europe, and India.
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