The recent imposition of a 25% tariff on Mexican exports by the Trump administration has significantly altered the global avocado market. According to Avocado Exporters Association of Kenya, facing higher tariffs on exports to the U.S., Mexico is now redirecting its entire production—approximately 1.3 million tons annually—toward the European market. During Europe’s critical avocado season (May to September), even a seasonal contribution of 500,000–600,000 tons from Mexico will substantially consume Europe’s total annual avocado consumption of around 800,000 tons.
“This influx creates a highly competitive environment, especially for Kenyan exporters who typically send only 70,000–100,000 tons to Europe during the same period. Historically, market oversupply has led to significant price drops, as seen when Peru’s seasonal shipments once pushed prices down to around €0.75–1 per kilogram. With Mexico’s larger volumes and lower shipping costs, prices could fall even further, to an estimated €0.50–0.75 per kilogram, well below the break-even levels (around €1.50–2 per kilogram) for Kenyan producers”, says Association in its LinkedIn post.
According to them, the consequences are clear: Kenyan growers could be forced to sell at a loss, pivot to less lucrative markets with higher logistical challenges, or face the risk of unsold, perishable stock. Furthermore, unlike the seasonal pattern of Peru’s exports which typically exit the European market by October, Mexico’s continuous supply means there is no respite during Europe’s peak season. This scenario underscores the risks and uncertainties faced by agricultural exporters in a rapidly shifting trade landscape.
EastFruit analysts explain that American consumers will have to pay more for their avocados, which will negatively impact consumption. Avocado sourcing will still be mostly done from Mexico, as well as from Chile and Peru. Basically Trump’s decision to impose import tariffs on Mexico will subsidize avocado buyers of Europe on expense of US consumers.
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We don’t think that all of Mexican avocados will be redirected from the US to Europe. We also think that it will simply put pressure on avocado prices around the globe while increasing prices in the US. Thus, not only consumers in Europe, but also in Asia will benefit from lower avocado prices. In the meantime, avocado producing countries may get a better chance to supply their produce to the US, but it will still not prevent prices in the US from going up because Mexico is much closer than alternative suppliers.
Generally, speaking in the long-term, this decision by Trump‘s administration will harm everyone, even the consumers in Europe and Asia . Expected decrease in profitability of growing avocados will negatively impact its supply, while demand is still growing. Thus, eventually, prices of avocados will go up everywhere, reflecting artificially created inefficiencies and barriers. Disrupted value chain will take a long time to recover even after the removal of those tariffs.
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