The raspberry freezing season is in full swing in all key producing and exporting countries of frozen raspberries in Europe, namely Serbia, Poland and Ukraine. It’s time for EastFruit analysts to compare their preliminary forecasts with the market situation as it is as of today. We are also going to update you on market expectations based on the opinion of industry insiders.
Let’s recall that the first forecast of raspberry prices for Ukraine in the context of the situation on the EU market was published on March 1, 2024, and it was very optimistic. That is why many market participants perceived it quite skeptically. Just before the start of the season, these same market participants expressed their opinions regarding the prospects for raspberry pricing, and this forecast has already turned out to be very close to EastFruit’s earlier expectations.
Currently, frozen raspberries from the 2024 harvest in Serbia, Ukraine and Poland are already entering the market, and prices begin from 3.2 euros per kg for high quality categories. This means that, despite the beginning of the season, the tension on the market for frozen raspberries in Europe has not subsided, and prices for these berries have even increased slightly since the beginning of the season.
“There is an opinion on the market that prices for high-quality frozen raspberries in the European Union could reach 3.5 euros per kg or even exceed this level. The main reason is a decrease in production in Serbia, as well as probable losses of the raspberry harvest in Ukraine due to labor shortages and abnormal heat in the main production regions of the country,” says Yulia Tymoshenko, project manager for the frozen fruits production at “Tiferet” in Moldova.
At the same time, Ukraine’s problems, of course, are not limited to abnormally hot weather and labor shortages. Not everyone can freeze raspberries in the context of constant attacks by the Russian army on the country’s civilian infrastructure and energy supplies limited to only several hours a day. Storing raspberries for a long time in Ukraine is also not very easy. It is not surprising that owners of frozen raspberries from Ukraine are forced to sell them as quickly as possible, although they understand that storing could help them higher price later. Thus, trading from Ukraine is a bit more active in July 2024 than usually it is during the summer months.
Read also: Blueberry bonanza: Ukraine’s inexpensive berries to enrich EU markets
“In Ukraine, the bulk of raspberries used for freezing come from the remontant or primocane varieties, harvesting of which begins in the second half of August and continues until the first frost. However, the foundation for the raspberry market is always laid in July, because the duration of the harvesting season for remontant raspberries may well be very short. For example, in Ukraine, the first serious frost often occurs already in mid-September, after which the season can abruptly end right after it has just begun. However, the opposite may also be true – sometimes primocane raspberry varieties in Ukraine are harvested from August through early December giving very high yields thanks to the very long season duration. Therefore, the season and volume of production of remontant raspberries is much more difficult to predict than summer or floricane raspberries, which means that at present we can state an increase in uncertainty in the market,” says Andriy Yarmak, economist at the investment department of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
It is not surprising that tension in the EU raspberry market remains at a high level, and everything points in favor of the possibility of a further increase in prices for frozen raspberries. At least EastFruit team thinks that the chances for prices increase further are higher than for it to go down.
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