Apple prices for the 2024/25 season are expected to remain high, with exporters of quality fruits and apple concentrate once again in a favorable position, according to EastFruit. This estimation is based on data from the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) presented at the Prognosfruit 2024 conference. Additionally, the industrial apple segment is anticipated to remain highly favorable for raw produce suppliers.
The apple harvest in the key 20 EU countries in 2024 is projected to decrease by 11% compared to the already low production levels of the previous year (10.2 million tons versus 11.5 million tons). This figure is also 14% lower than the average of the past three years. Most producing countries are expected to see a decline in yield, including France (-3%), Italy (-1%), and the Netherlands (-1%). The most significant losses are anticipated in Belgium (-34%), Romania (-15%), and, crucially for the EastFruit region, Poland (-20%).
For apple growers in Moldova and Ukraine, this means significantly less competition from Polish apples in Europe and the Middle East, as well as some additional opportunities in the Romanian market. However, only those producers who can supply export-quality apples will be able to capitalize on these opportunities, which may pose a challenge in both countries.
In Moldova, WAPA reports that production in 2024 will decrease by 14% to just 450 thousand tons. In Ukraine, EastFruit estimates that the apple harvest will also be lower than last year due to unfavorable weather conditions in the spring and summer of this year. Serbia is also expected to see a 19% decrease in apple production compared to the previous year. This overall decline could create a favorable situation for producers targeting exports, as less competition in the European apple segment is expected in the Middle East.
On the other hand, a severe shortage of apples in the Middle East is not anticipated, as apple production in Turkey is set to increase for the seventh consecutive year. Additionally, the apple harvest in India, which became a key importer of these fruits last season, including from EU countries, is expected to recover somewhat.
The industrial apple and apple concentrate market also shows promising prospects. Apple production in China is expected to increase only slightly (+2%), while in the USA, it is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2018. Consequently, the supply of apple concentrate on the global market is likely to remain insufficient, thereby supporting prices for industrial apples. Furthermore, apple production in Austria and Hungary is also expected to decline significantly, and these two countries are among the key suppliers of apples for processing in the EU.
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