According to trade sources from EastFruit, due to rapidly rising prices for basic food products in the country, which is causing widespread discontent among the population ahead of the holy month of Ramadan, the government has decided to impose a complete ban on the export of apples, oranges, and dates for 60 days. Some sources indicate February 24, 2025, as the date of the ban’s implementation, but our sources claim that shipments were still possible until yesterday. It is likely that they will be halted today with the start of Ramadan.
Since Iran is one of the world’s leading apple exporters by volume, exporting up to 1 million tons of these fruits in some seasons, this decision will have a significant impact on the global apple market. Comparable apple export volumes are only seen in Italy, China, and Poland. Iranian apples hold key positions in one of the world’s main apple import markets – India. Iran also significantly influences apple prices in the lower price segment in important export markets for Ukraine, Moldova, and Poland, such as the UAE, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.
Therefore, the reduction in apple supply from Iran will support already high apple prices in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia. This, in turn, may support apple prices in Europe and Turkey. This trend will not bypass the Ukrainian market, where record-high prices may rise even further in March-June.
Read also: Iran taxes its apple exports fueling further price rise
EastFruit analysts note that such a decision by the Iranian authorities is populist and will only exacerbate the country’s economic problems. Official inflation in Iran was estimated at 31.8% year-on-year in January 2025, but economists say real inflation is at least one and a half to two times higher.
The local currency, the Iranian rial, has long been the subject of many jokes. As of February 2025, the rial’s exchange rate reached approximately 930,000–950,000 IRR per US dollar on the unofficial “black” market, a 14% drop in a month! This sharply contrasts with the official rate fixed at 42,000 IRR per dollar for essential goods imports. The export ban will mean another reduction in foreign exchange earnings and exacerbate problems with the exchange rate and inflation.
