Winter frosts have caused localized damage to fruit orchards in Ukraine’s Mykolaiv region, with apricots and pears sustaining the most significant impact. Winter cereals, perennial grasses, as well as other stone and pome fruit crops, have emerged from dormancy without reported losses, according to the Mykolaiv Regional Center for Hydrometeorology, cited by EastFruit.
Agrometeorological data indicate that winter crops remained in a state of dormancy throughout February, and no plant mortality was recorded. However, following a temperature drop to –15°C on 27 January 2026, specialists conducted laboratory bud viability assessments on fruit tree samples collected in the northern part of the region (Pervomaisk hydrological station).
The findings revealed:
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damage to 43% of apricot leaf buds;
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damage to 14% of pear leaf buds.
No frost injury was detected in cherry, plum, or apple orchards.
“For apricots, this level of bud damage is significant,” said Denys Moskalov, Commercial Director at Frostli, a company specializing in orchard frost protection technologies. “If generative (flower) buds were also affected, this could translate into reduced yields and potential quality implications for the 2026 season. Apricot remains one of the most frost-sensitive fruit crops, particularly vulnerable to sharp temperature fluctuations following winter thaws.”
For pears, the current risk assessment remains moderate. Damage to 14% of buds is unlikely to result in a substantial crop reduction, provided that additional frost events do not occur during the critical spring development stages.
March weather to determine crop outlook
Market implications will largely depend on weather conditions in March and April. Further cold spells during bud swelling or flowering could significantly exacerbate the impact of the January frost event.
“For growers in southern Ukraine, this episode underscores the growing climate volatility facing the horticulture sector,” Moskalov added. “Even relatively short-term temperature drops to –15°C can carry tangible economic consequences, particularly for early stone fruit crops.”
EastFruit will continue to monitor developments and assess the implications for Ukraine’s 2026 fruit harvest outlook.
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