A survey of apple market participants conducted on the EastFruit Telegram channel regarding wholesale prices for fresh apples in Ukraine in January–May 2027 points to predominantly cautious market expectations.
Among respondents who provided a specific forecast, 43% expect prices to decline, 29% anticipate an increase, while another 29% believe that prices will remain broadly unchanged. The most common scenario is a price decrease of 11–20%, selected by 25% of respondents. A further 14% expect prices to fall by more than 21%.
“During the current season, apple prices began to decline unexpectedly for Ukrainian growers in the second half of the season and continued falling from January through June, which is highly unusual. In fact, apples were selling for at least 25% more during the harvesting period than after long-term storage,” explains Andriy Yarmak, an economist at the FAO Investment Centre.
“According to preliminary estimates, Ukraine’s apple harvest will increase significantly in 2026. In addition, several other factors are expected to put downward pressure on prices, including the rapid increase in the cost of exports by sea and larger apple crops in Moldova and Türkiye,” Andriy Yarmak adds.
At the same time, EastFruit experts expect Central Asia and the Caucasus to absorb part of the surplus supply. Apple production is forecast to decline noticeably in Georgia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
However, should growers begin selling apples aggressively during the harvesting period this year, prices in the second half of the season—from January through June—may not fall below the levels recorded during the same period of the current year.
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