El Niño is no longer a forecast — it is here. This is the concern weighing on Summit Produce’s Franco Pruzzo, who notes that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an advisory this month which confirmed that conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are intensifying, EastFruit writes, citing FreshPlaza.
As he notes, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region reached +1.7°C by mid-June, and the majority of climate models now point to a moderate-to-strong event, with roughly half projecting a very strong episode (≥ +2.0°C) at its peak during September–November 2026.
The event is expected to continue into early 2027. “The timing matters,” says Pruzzo. “The projected peak coincides directly with Peru’s blueberry and grape campaigns and Chile’s cherry, grape, and stone fruit season. Every El Niño is different, but the August–December window is where climate risk and harvest risk overlap most.”
Here’s a closer look at concerns for Peru and Chile:
PERU
“Heat is the main threat from August–December,” says Pruzzo. “Peru’s coastal growing regions—La Libertad, Lambayeque, Piura, and Ica—will feel El Niño primarily through above-normal temperatures, particularly warm winter nights.” In turn, heavy coastal rainfall is typically a summer–so January–March phenomenon–that leaves the main risk through December as thermal.
Blueberries: “Warm winters reduce chilling-hour accumulation, which disrupts flowering and bud break,” says Pruzzo, noting that the industry remembers 2023/24, when high temperatures caused varieties like Ventura to abort flowering in favor of vegetative growth. That cut early-season volumes dramatically.
“Since then, growers have aggressively replanted with low-chill and zero-chill genetics, and Proarándanos–the Peruvian Blueberry Growers & Exporter Association–projects a strong start of roughly 56,000 MT through week 33 and up nearly 40 percent year over year on 3,000 new hectares,” he adds. “The risk is in the back half if warm anomalies persist through September–November as forecast.”
That means flowering behavior, fruit sizing, firmness, and post-harvest life could all be affected, and volumes could concentrate into narrower shipping windows. Notably, Proarándanos has moved to short-term rolling forecasts rather than a full-season projection which is indicative of uncertainty ahead.”
Grapes: Warm conditions in the middle and second half of the year can set off an earlier harvest this season, reduce berry sizing, and compress the Piura/Ica windows. “We saw a preview of this pattern in recent warm seasons: earlier starts, smaller caliber, and quality pressure on later blocks. Buyers should plan for potential shifts in the traditional Peru-to-Chile transition timing,” says Pruzzo.
CHILE
In Chile, rain and instability are the bigger concerns from August to December. “In central Chile, El Niño historically means a wetter winter and spring, with the added complication that recent events have pushed impacts further south — putting O’Higgins and Maule, the heart of the cherry industry, among the most exposed regions,” says Pruzzo.
Cherries: This is the highest-risk category. “Bioclimatologists warn of heavy spring rains, potential hail during bloom and fruit set from September–October, and most critically, rain events near harvest in November–December that cause cracking,” says Pruzzo. “With Chile’s crop at record scale, even a modest percentage of rain-affected fruit translates into volume and condition variability at destination.”
Grapes and blueberries: Spring rains raise botrytis and downy mildew risk during flowering and early fruit development, and can affect firmness and post-harvest performance. These are factors that determine value on arrival. “Blueberries tolerate bloom-period rain better than cherries, but condition risk carries into the shipping season,” says Pruzzo.
Stone fruit: Nectarines, peaches, and plums will also face similar issues “A warm, humid spring can also accelerate maturity and compress harvest windows,” says Pruzzo.
Outcomes from El Niño
So what does this all mean? For Peru, it’s about timing shifts, with warmer conditions leading to earlier starts in the country and potentially compressed harvest windows in both Peru and Chile.
Volumes may also be volatile. ” Strong early Peruvian blueberry volumes may give way to gaps or surges later in the season while Chilean cherry volumes will hinge on November–December rain,” says Pruzzo.
Managing this news means mitigation is critical. “Both industries are better prepared than in 2023,” he says, noting preparations include low-chill blueberry genetics in Peru, covered cherry orchards and preventive fungicide programs in Chile. “So a strong El Niño does not guarantee a repeat of past losses, but it raises the probability of disruption.”
Meanwhile, Summit Produce is taking its own mitigation steps by monitoring weekly ENFEN, Senamhi, and NOAA updates alongside its grower-shareholders GESEX and PuraFruit on the ground in Chile and Peru. “We will adjust arrival forecasts and allocation plans as the season develops, and keep our retail partners informed with real-time crop intelligence,” says Pruzzo.
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