Ukraine is unlikely to face a physical shortage of potatoes immediately after the 2026 harvest. The greater risk may emerge later in the season, when supplies of high-quality marketable potatoes suitable for long-term storage begin to decline. Potato prices could rise by around 25–40% between December and February, while the most challenging period may come in spring 2027.
This forecast was shared with Delo.ua by Kateryna Zvierieva, Development Director of the Ukrainian Fruit and Vegetable Association (UHA) and head of the EastFruit international information and analytical platform.
At first glance, the current market situation points in the opposite direction. Potato prices in Ukraine have been declining as harvesting expands and supply increases.
As of 20 August 2026, Ukrainian growers were offering potatoes at UAH 6–12/kg ($0.13–0.29/kg), down by an average of 14% week on week and around 37% below the level recorded during the same period last year.
Yet this highlights one of the key structural features of Ukraine’s potato market: an abundant supply immediately after harvest does not necessarily mean there will be enough quality potatoes available six or eight months later.
Has Ukraine really lost 30% of its potato crop?
According to Zvierieva, it is still too early to conclude that Ukraine has lost as much as 30% of its national potato crop.
Harvesting of mid-season and late varieties was still under way in the second half of August, while yields differ substantially not only between regions but even between neighbouring farms.
Weather conditions have nevertheless been difficult.
In many production areas, key stages of potato development — budding, flowering and early tuber formation — coincided with moisture shortages and periods of extremely high temperatures.
This is particularly damaging for potatoes because of their relatively shallow root system. During prolonged periods above +35–37°C, plants divert much of the available water towards transpiration and cooling, while tuber growth slows considerably.
For this reason, Zvierieva says the 2026 season should be described not in terms of a single nationwide percentage loss, but rather as a season of extremely uneven yields.
Farms with irrigation, suitable varieties, high-quality seed potatoes and good agronomic control may achieve acceptable results. By contrast, losses on non-irrigated land — particularly on lighter soils — can be substantial.
“Two farms in the same district may end up with completely different yields depending on variety, planting date, soil type, irrigation and the stage of crop development at which the heat occurred,” Zvierieva said.
Reliable access to irrigation is therefore becoming not simply a competitive advantage but increasingly a prerequisite for commercial potato production in many Ukrainian regions.
Why can a smaller crop still mean cheap potatoes in autumn?
The answer lies in the structure of supply.
During the main harvesting period, large volumes of potatoes enter the market at the same time. Many growers lack professional storage facilities and therefore have little choice but to sell immediately.
As a result, prices can decline even in a season affected by yield problems.
Supply normally reaches its seasonal peak in September and the first half of October. Unless harvesting is disrupted by severe weather, EastFruit does not expect a genuine physical shortage during this period.
The same seasonal pattern was visible in 2025. On 18 September last year, EastFruit recorded Ukrainian farm-gate potato prices at UAH 9–16/kg as harvesting of late varieties increased market supply.
The situation changes as the season progresses.
By late autumn, potatoes from farms without long-term storage gradually disappear from the market. At the same time, storage losses begin to accumulate.
Buyers are then no longer paying simply for a kilogram of potatoes. They are paying for consistent quality, the required variety and size, appearance, packaging and the ability of a supplier to deliver uniform volumes regularly for several months.
This is why the price gap between potatoes sold directly from the field and high-quality potatoes coming out of professional storage could become wider than usual in the 2026/27 season.
According to Zvierieva, December–February will therefore provide a much better indication of the real market balance than September prices, with March and April 2027 potentially becoming even more revealing.
Potato prices could increase by approximately 25–40% in December–February, depending on the final harvest, the quality of the crop placed into storage and subsequent storage losses.
Ukraine may have enough potatoes — but not enough marketable potatoes
A crucial distinction needs to be made between total potato production and the commercial market.
Ukraine traditionally has a very large household potato sector, with millions of people growing potatoes mainly for their own consumption.
According to a study by the KSE Agrocenter and the Ukrainian Association of Potato Producers, around 12.4 million Ukrainians grow potatoes for household consumption.
However, household production does not automatically translate into supply for organised retail, HoReCa, processors or other professional buyers.
These market segments need potatoes of a specified variety and size, consistent quality, sufficient lot volumes, suitable packaging and reliable delivery schedules.
Ukraine can therefore have a substantial gross potato harvest in autumn and still experience shortages of particular categories of marketable potatoes later in the season.
This also helps explain why a country with large domestic potato production can still become an importer towards the end of the marketing season.
Storage, processing and irrigation are becoming critical bottlenecks
The 2026 season once again highlights several structural weaknesses in Ukraine’s potato industry.
The first is storage.
Growing potatoes is only part of the business. Commercial producers need to be able to preserve quality for six to nine months. A grower without appropriate storage infrastructure is often forced to sell during the period of maximum supply and minimum prices. Those potatoes subsequently disappear from the market, contributing to tighter supply and higher prices in spring.
The shortage of modern potato storage facilities is therefore not merely an individual farm problem. It is one of the factors behind national price volatility.
The second challenge is processing.
Despite being a major potato-producing country, Ukraine continues to import substantial volumes of finished frozen French fries.
Potato processors cannot simply use any potatoes available on the market. French fry production requires specific varieties, suitable dry matter and reducing sugar levels, the right tuber length and shape, uniform sizing and controlled storage conditions.
In other words, table potatoes sold on the fresh market are not automatically suitable as industrial raw material. Developing a professional processing segment could therefore become one of the most important opportunities for Ukraine’s potato industry.
The third strategic issue is irrigation.
Climate change is gradually altering the geography and economics of potato production in Ukraine. Even growers in traditional potato-producing regions are increasingly considering investments in irrigation.
Future competitiveness will consequently depend not only on yield per hectare but increasingly on access to water, storage technology, the right varieties and processing capacity.
Spring 2027 will be the real test
Zvierieva does not expect Ukraine to face a physical potato shortage in autumn 2026. The key question is what happens after several months of storage. If final yields prove weaker and the share of potatoes suitable for long-term storage is lower than expected, imports could increase towards the end of winter and in spring 2027.
The decisive indicator for the 2026/27 season will therefore not be how many potatoes Ukraine harvests in September and October. It will be how much high-quality marketable product remains available in March–May 2027.That figure is likely to determine both spring prices and Ukraine’s need for potato imports during the second half of the marketing season.
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