The growing global demand for almonds – driven by the U.S.–China trade war and the risk of crop failure in Turkey – has triggered a sharp rise in almond prices in Uzbekistan, both on domestic and international markets, according to EastFruit analysts.
In early March this year, EastFruit reported on the impact of the U.S.- China trade conflict on California agriculture – the primary U.S. region for nut production. Following an increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, China responded with a 15% import duty on American agricultural products. This measure hit California particularly hard, as it is a key global supplier of almonds, with China being the fourth-largest export destination.
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In this context, Chinese almond importers have evidently turned to alternative suppliers. However, the global almond market is facing additional pressure this season due to expected crop losses caused by spring frosts in Turkey – one of the world’s leading almond producers and exporters, ranking fifth globally in almond production.
As a result of these factors, demand for Uzbek almonds has surged, significantly driving up prices on the country’s domestic market. Over the past 2–2.5 months, wholesale prices for kernels of local almond varieties from the 2023 harvest have nearly doubled – from 65,000–70,000 UZS/kg ($5.00–5.40) to 120,000–130,000 UZS/kg ($9.50–10.20).
According to Uzbek exporters, available volumes for export are currently very limited, and assembling large batches has become a major challenge.
In contrast, wholesale prices for so-called “California varieties” of almond kernels (also from the previous harvest) have increased 2.6 times during the same period – from 45,000–50,000 UZS/kg ($3.50–3.90) to the same 120,000–130,000 UZS/kg range ($9.50–10.20). Notably, these California-type almonds are mainly consumed by Uzbekistan’s confectionery industry, as they are not in high demand among the general public. Historically, their wholesale prices have been 25–30% lower than those of local almond varieties.
However, the current market conditions have eliminated this price gap, and now both types are trading at similar price levels, EastFruit analysts conclude.
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