Analysts at EastFruit have assessed the impact of weather conditions on the outlook for the 2025 sweet cherry and sour cherry harvest in Eastern European countries and Turkey—the region’s largest cherry exporter. All countries in the region were severely affected by frost in April 2025, and it became immediately clear that production would decline. However, the damage was uneven, and current estimates, while preliminary, are considered close to realistic.
“Another important factor to consider when evaluating price trends for sweet cherries and sour cherries in 2025 is the ongoing reduction in orchard areas dedicated to these crops within the European Union. Due to increasing risks in cherry production, particularly from frequent frost-related crop losses, older orchards are gradually being uprooted and are not being replaced,” notes Andriy Yarmak, economist at the Investment Centre of the FAO.
So, what is the extent of the damage caused by frosts this year, and what are the production and price prospects for cherries and sour cherries?
Ukraine
At the end of April 2025, Ukraine experienced a third wave of spring frosts, resulting in substantial losses across the horticultural sector. Apricots were hardest hit, as reported earlier in the article “Apricot Apocalypse,” while cherries and sour cherries were relatively less affected.
Preliminary estimates suggest that approximately 35–40% of the sweet cherry crop was lost, primarily in the southern regions where production is concentrated. Losses in central regions were even higher, though sweet cherry cultivation is less widespread there.
Sour cherry losses are estimated at 20–25%. In Ukraine, sour cherries are mainly used for freezing and processing for export. This product will likely become significantly more expensive, especially given the anticipated high prices for raspberries during the summer season.
It is also worth noting that Ukraine has already become heavily dependent on sweet cherry imports following the Russian occupation of its traditional cherry-growing regions and the near-total destruction of those orchards. As a result, sweet cherry prices in Ukraine this year are expected to be higher than usual.
Poland
Spring frosts in Poland at the end of April and early May 2025 led to significant damage to both sweet cherry and sour cherry crops. In some regions, losses reached as high as 80%.
Nationally, sour cherry losses are estimated at 50–55%. Losses in sweet cherries are even higher. While Poland is not a major exporter of fresh cherries, frozen cherries from Poland have been gaining traction in international markets in recent years.
Read also: Frozen Fruits and Berries Go Mainstream: The Shaved Ice Sensation Redefining Healthy Desserts
Turkey
Turkey remains the most influential country for sweet cherry pricing in Eastern Europe and significantly affects fresh cherry prices across the “old EU” countries.
Between April 10 and 12, 2025, orchard temperatures in Turkey dropped to -15°C, resulting in a projected 50–70% reduction in the upcoming cherry harvest. The hardest-hit areas include Salihli, Isparta, and Afyonkarahisar.
Local experts estimate that sweet cherry prices during the main harvest and export season will average 75% higher than normal. This means that prices for fresh sweet cherries in Ukraine are expected to rise by a similar margin.
In Russia—where sweet cherry and sour cherry harvests also declined by an estimated 40–50%—fresh cherry prices are projected to double.
Hungary
Hungary has experienced some of the worst orchard losses in decades. Roughly 90% of fruit farms were affected by frosts in April and early May 2025. The harvest of sweet cherries and other stone fruits has decreased by 80–90%, particularly in the eastern regions.
Sour cherries are a significant part of Hungary’s fruit consumption, as are other stone fruits. As a result, local processors are already actively seeking sources of frozen sour cherries from Central Asian countries, especially Uzbekistan.
Romania
Between April 6 and 11, 2025, nighttime temperatures in Romanian orchards dropped to -8°C, causing substantial losses in stone fruit harvests. The sweet cherry and sour cherry harvest is expected to fall by 70–80%, particularly in regions such as Dâmbovița, Brașov, and Vâlcea. Consequently, Romania will also be seeking to import cherries from abroad, even during its domestic harvesting season.
Moldova
“In Moldova, the main damage to sweet cherry and sour cherry crops occurred during the first and second waves of frost,” says Yulia Tymoshenko, head of the frozen fruit production project “Tiferet” in Moldova. “Farms that managed to take protective measures were able to partially preserve their crops. Preliminary estimates indicate losses of 30–40%,” she adds. Moldovan media report that in some regions, up to 100% of the sweet cherry and sour cherry harvest was lost. The most affected areas are in the north of the country, such as Soroca.
Can Uzbekistan Replace Turkey in the Eastern European Cherry Market?
While some shipments of sweet cherries from Uzbekistan will likely reach Eastern European markets, overall volumes are expected to remain minimal. There are three main reasons:
- Long distances and complicated logistics, exacerbated by Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine;
- Exceptionally high cherry prices in Russia, making it a more attractive and logistically simpler sales market for Uzbekistan;
- Seasonal mismatch—Uzbekistan’s cherry season ends before peak demand begins in Eastern European countries.
Conclusion
In summary, consumers across the region will have to accept a sharp decline in cherry consumption in 2025. Unfortunately, this fruit will become unaffordable for many.
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