The EastFruit team recently conducted an anonymous survey among subscribers to their “EastFruit News” Telegram channel and participants of the “UkrOpt” and “EF Trade Platform” marketplaces. The survey sought forecasts for wholesale onion prices at the beginning of the new season—specifically September-October 2025. Respondents were asked to select from price ranges between 20 and 50 US cents per kilogram (in 10-cent increments), or to indicate prices either below 20 cents or above 50 cents. While not statistically representative, the survey gathered a significant number of responses to identify meaningful trends.
The results reveal a market still searching for consensus. No single price projection garnered more than a third of responses, with each option receiving at least 10% of votes. Nevertheless, the largest group of respondents (29%) anticipates wholesale onion prices falling below 20 US cents per kilogram—equivalent to less than 8.3 UAH/kg at current exchange rates. Should this scenario materialize, it would establish a historic record low for onion prices during harvest season and its immediate aftermath, excluding the anomalous first year of the COVID pandemic.
Interestingly, the second most popular projection stands in stark contrast, with 25% of respondents expecting prices between 30 and 40 US cents—representing the opposite extreme. If realized, this would set a record high for wholesale onion prices during harvest season, with the exception of the atypical 2022 season when Russian forces occupied major onion-growing regions, dramatically reducing domestic supply and necessitating expensive imports to meet local demand.
Read also: Onion Prices Begin to Rise in Ukraine
Further highlighting the market’s uncertainty, 19% of respondents predicted prices exceeding 50 cents, while 10% projected the 40-50 cent range. These higher estimates likely came predominantly from producers themselves.
For context, wholesale onion prices in Ukraine during September-October 2024 remained relatively stable, averaging between 9 and 10 UAH/kg. The previous year saw prices approximately 2 UAH/kg lower, though roughly equivalent in US dollar terms. Historically, average onion prices during this period typically range between 20 and 29 US cents per kilogram, excluding the pandemic period and the first year following Russia’s full-scale invasion. Perhaps most telling is that the middle-ground forecast—prices between 20 and 30 US cents—proved among the least popular options, garnering just 18% of votes.
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