China continues its dynamic expansion in the global frozen French fry market. According to EastFruit, in just the first five months of 2025, the country has already exported two-thirds of the total volume it shipped throughout the entire previous year. Since becoming a net exporter of this product in 2022, China has shown no signs of slowing down: for instance, in just the subsequent two years, its export volumes have doubled.
From January to May 2025, China exported 139,000 tons of frozen French fries, compared to 206,000 tons for the whole of 2024. Over the past seven years, the country’s exports of this product have surged nearly 26-fold, with the most accelerated growth beginning in 2020.
“In 2024, China ranked as the eighth-largest exporter of frozen French fries by volume and ninth in terms of export value in USD. The country’s rapid expansion in the global and domestic markets caught many off guard, as few were prepared for the emergence of such a formidable competitor,” notes Yevhen Kuzin, Horticulture Market Analyst at EastFruit.
In parallel with its export growth, China has significantly reduced its reliance on imported frozen French fries in recent years. In 2018, the country imported 191,000 tons of the product – 24 times more than it exported. By contrast, imports in 2024 barely exceeded 25,000 tons, and the figure for January-May 2025 (7,600 tons) marked the lowest level in decades.
“The COVID-19 pandemic unexpectedly accelerated the development of domestic French fry production in China. Faced with disruptions in imports and logistics, the country was compelled to expand its own production capacity. Simultaneously, since 2020, China’s fast-food restaurant sector has experienced rapid growth. While uncertainty prevailed globally, China quickly adapted to ‘COVID conditions’ and became something of a ‘safe haven’ for international chains – a stable and promising market for expansion. Moreover, restaurants in China resumed operations at a time when many other countries were still grappling with the early stages of the pandemic,” Yevhen Kuzin continues.
In 2021, the American fast-food chain Five Guys entered the Chinese market. That same year, approximately 900 KFC restaurants opened in China – accounting for 40% of all global openings. In 2023, McDonald’s launched 925 new outlets in China – two-thirds of its global total.
This significantly bolstered the development of the domestic industry. For example, in McDonald’s restaurants, the most popular menu item is not the Big Mac, but French fries. According to FAS USDA data, from July to September 2023, four new frozen French fry production lines with a combined capacity of 400,000 tons were commissioned in China – equivalent to the country’s entire production volume for MY 2022/23. In other words, China theoretically doubled its frozen French fry production in just one season.
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“What’s notable about China is that explosive growth has occurred in both domestic and international markets. This dual expansion has reshaped – if not the global, then certainly the regional – French fry market. Previously, China consumed large volumes of this product from the U.S., Belgium, the Netherlands, France, and other traditional suppliers. But within just a few years, these countries have faced not only declining demand from Chinese importers but also intensified competition from Chinese exporters in other Asian markets,” Yevhen Kuzin observes.
In 2024, China exported frozen French fries to 70 countries, with nearly 90% of the volume destined for East and Southeast Asia – regions that had traditionally relied on imports from the U.S., Belgium, the Netherlands, and others. China’s share of French fry imports in the Philippines was less than 0.5% in 2018, but by 2024 it had climbed to 22%. Comparable figures for Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia in 2024 were 8%, 34%, 28%, and 14%, respectively.
Meanwhile, U.S. exports of frozen French fries in 2023-2024 were among the lowest in the past decade – only 2020, the “COVID year,” recorded lower volumes. EU suppliers also reported declining shipments, with China frequently cited as a key factor. For instance, Dutch exports in 2024 fell to their lowest level since 2015 (excluding 2020).
“Despite China’s remarkable pace of expansion in the global frozen French fry market, future growth will largely hinge on the country’s economic trajectory, which is projected to slow in the coming years. Additionally, global market volatility and strained U.S.-China relations could alter the current balance of power. Nevertheless, international giants like McDonald’s continue to invest heavily in China, underscoring not only the enduring potential of the domestic market but also the prospects for continued export growth across Asia – and, in the medium term, beyond,” Yevhen Kuzin concludes.
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