Europe could face one of its smallest potato harvests on record in 2026. Hot and dry weather has caused a significant decline in yields, while total production losses in Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom could exceed 3.5 million tonnes, EastFruit reports, citing PotatoPro.
According to industry estimates, potato production in the NEPG countries — Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands — is expected to decline by around 3.1 million tonnes. Yields are forecast to be 7–21% below the five-year average.
At prices agreed before the drought began, the value of the lost production in these four countries is estimated at €405–622 million, with a mid-range estimate of around €498 million.
Including the United Kingdom, total losses could exceed 3.5 million tonnes, with their value estimated at €498–818 million. In the UK alone, the damage could amount to £80–169 million.
Planted Area Also Declined
Weather-related losses have been compounded by a reduction in potato acreage. Following a record harvest of 27.3 million tonnes in 2025, an oversupply pushed prices lower, prompting farmers to reduce plantings.
Potato acreage fell by 11% in Germany, 10% in France, 15% in the Netherlands and 17% in Belgium. Based on the five-year average yield, this reduction in planted area alone potentially lowered production by a further 3.6 million tonnes.
Thus, the decline in planted area is a separate factor reducing supply and is not directly related to crop losses caused by drought and heat in 2026.
Read also: Morocco’s ware potato imports hit record levels (MY 2025/26)
Harvest Could Hit a Record Low
Current industry estimates put Europe’s potato harvest at 19.5–20.5 million tonnes. According to World Potato Markets, EU production could be the lowest on record.
The largest weather-related losses are expected in Germany, at around 1.13 million tonnes. In France, the shortfall is estimated at 0.99 million tonnes, while yields could fall to their lowest level in more than 30 years.
Belgium is expected to lose around 0.79 million tonnes. At the same time, approximately half of the crop of the main variety used for French fry production may fail to reach the size required by processors.
The Netherlands is expected to lose around 0.21 million tonnes, while the United Kingdom could lose a further 0.44 million tonnes. For the UK market, this could also result in the lowest potato harvest on record.
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