In a season defined by surging volumes and shifting trade dynamics, Morocco has emerged as a quiet powerhouse, surpassing 100,000 tons in avocado exports for the first time. While prices faltered under global oversupply—particularly from Peru—Moroccan growers celebrated a second consecutive record-breaking year, bolstered by excellent fruit size and stable weather, reports EastFruit.
As Europe grapples with a saturated market and intensifying price wars, Morocco’s strong showing signals a maturing industry with growing influence in the international avocado landscape, highlights Eastfruit, according to FreshPlaza overview.
Avocado markets worldwide are experiencing shifting dynamics as supply surges from Peru and other Latin American producers pressure prices in key regions. While demand remains solid, especially in Europe and North America, quality, logistics, and market access are playing a growing role in shaping trade flows and pricing outcomes, Fresh Plaza reports.
The avocado market in Italy is facing pressure from a surge in Peruvian Hass volumes, leading to falling prices and a price war. In contrast, demand for Pinkerton avocados is strong, with significant sales growth compared to previous years.
Spain saw robust growth in both avocado exports and imports during the first quarter of 2025, with France, the Netherlands, and Germany leading in purchases. Imports from Morocco surged, and the summer supply is expected to rise sharply, particularly from Peru.
In Germany, avocado volumes for the EU are up 37% over last year, dominated by large sizes, which is straining the spot market. The expected resumption of sea freight through the Suez Canal should further boost supply in the coming months.
The French market is experiencing strong demand for conventional Hass avocados, largely supplied by Peru. However, high volumes are driving prices down, and the season may end about a month earlier than usual.
Avocado demand in North America has remained stable after Cinco de Mayo, with consistent consumption expected through the summer. Increased supply from California, Mexico, Peru, and Colombia is placing downward pressure on prices.
As the world’s top avocado producer, Mexico anticipates a 5% increase in production for the upcoming season, adding roughly 150 million kilos. The United States continues to absorb over 90% of its exports.
Peru began its season later than last year but is producing higher volumes, which are putting pressure on European markets. Field prices have dropped, and exporters are turning to Asian and U.S. markets to ease oversupply.
Chile exported 135 million kilos of avocados and allocated 100 million to its domestic market, supplementing with imports from Peru. In Europe, summer prices ranged between €6 and €8 per box, emphasizing the role of quality.
Colombia is expanding its role in the global avocado market, supported by year-round production and a strategic location. The upcoming launch of Puerto Antioquia is expected to ease logistical constraints and improve export efficiency.
In China, reduced arrivals and a delayed shipment of Peruvian avocados have driven prices sharply higher. Chilean shipments are nearing their end, but recent arrivals are showing good quality.
South Africa’s local market is seeing avocado prices 34% higher than last year due to rain-delayed harvests and lower supply. Export volumes are projected at 22.5 million 4-kg cartons, with growing interest in China and India. Morocco has also reached a milestone this season, exporting between 100,000 and 110,000 tons of avocados, surpassing the 100,000-ton threshold for the first time despite lower prices.
Italy: Peruvian supply surge drives prices down
The avocado market has entered a critical phase, and the outlook for the coming months is not promising. According to a Milan-based wholesaler, the Peruvian Hass avocado sector is experiencing a sharp decline in prices due to a supply surge expected to continue until at least week 37 (early September). The primary issue is that volumes arriving from Peru have doubled compared to last year, with a heavy concentration in June, July, and August. Logistics data clearly reflect this trend: Europe is preparing to receive significantly more containers than in 2024, especially of the large sizes (10, 12, and 14), which are typically in highest demand in Southern Europe.
“Today, we are selling Peruvian Hass avocados for €9; ten days ago, the price was higher. The trend is downward.” The Peruvian avocado season officially began in April with low volumes, but full-scale shipments will start in June. Between now and week 32, volumes will rise sharply. The uneven distribution of sizes adds further complexity. “Large sizes (10-12-14-16) are abundant, while smaller sizes (18, 20, 22) are scarce and in high demand. The smaller sizes are primarily destined for supermarkets, where promotional offers are ongoing. Prices for sizes 24 to 32 are expected to fall, with ample availability projected until the end of July, targeting Northern and Eastern Europe or the net industry.”
The situation is different for South African Pinkerton avocados, which have seen a slight price increase following several challenging weeks. This was helped by the arrival of lower-quality Kenyan products. Currently, the purchase price ranges between €10 and €11. Even green-skinned varieties—Fuerte, Zutano, and Ettinger—have rebounded from a low point of around €5 to current purchase prices between €8 and €9. Reduced supply to Europe has helped stabilize prices and improve stock management, which is crucial in this market.
A purchasing manager from a well-known exotic fruit importing company comments: “Per capita consumption in Italy is still under one kilogram per year, but the trend is steadily increasing.” There is growing demand for ripe avocados sold in various packaging formats, indicating stronger consumer confidence. In Italy, market confidence remains high, and it is encouraging to see that the most popular sizes are also commanding the highest prices.
A wholesaler in Pagani, Campania, adds: “We’re seeing higher prices for Pinkerton avocados than last year, with an average price of €13 per 4-kilogram package, compared to €11 last year. According to our internal estimates, we sold 14,000 4-kilogram packages in the first five months of this year, compared to 11,000 last year. In fact, sales have grown significantly year-on-year. Compared to 2023, when we sold just 8,000 units, we can confidently say that marketing has doubled in two years. As for quality, we are currently observing a decline, possibly due to poor organization and delayed deliveries, which are affecting product condition. However, it must be said that quality has not been exceptional for some time. We are currently importing from South Africa, but we generally do not source avocados from America.”
Spain: Avocado trade sees strong Q1 growth
Walking through the Axarquía region, the small avocado trees destined for the 2025/26 campaign are already visible. The campaign begins with positive prospects thanks to spring rains, which have increased reserves in the Viñuela reservoir to 50%—a level not reached since February 2016.
Regarding avocado sales in Spain, both imports and exports increased compared to the same period last year during the first quarter of 2025. France remains by far the largest buyer of Spanish avocados, followed by the Netherlands and Germany. Together, these three countries accounted for more than 72% of both the volume and value of avocados exported by Spain in the first quarter of the year.
On the import side, Morocco was the leading supplier of avocados to Spain, showing a notable rise in sales during the first three months of 2025. According to the Ministry of Foreign Trade, Spanish buyers purchased 29,160 tons of Moroccan avocados. This marks a 73% increase compared to the 16,855 tons imported in the same period of 2024, and a 158% increase compared to the 11,273 tons imported in the first quarter of 2023.
Now that the avocado season has ended on the Iberian Peninsula, the market is closely watching the development of summer supply, which is expected to grow significantly, particularly from Peru. According to a Spanish importer, the Peruvian avocado season is off to a strong start in terms of quality. “Compared to last season, we are seeing better ripening, with improved dry matter percentage and fat content. In terms of volume, estimates from various associations and growers in recent weeks point to a considerable increase of around 30% compared to the previous season. This increase in supply makes it essential to promote the product, so that existing consumers buy more and new consumers are attracted to it,” he explains.
Germany: EU avocado volumes rise sharply
Germany’s spot market is coming under increasing pressure as shipments from Peru continue to rise. Overall, volumes destined for the EU market are now up to 37% higher than during the same period last year. These are predominantly large-caliber avocados (sizes 16/18).
A German importer reports that quality from other sourcing countries—such as Kenya, Tanzania, and South Africa—is also generally good. Starting in week 23, sea freight through the Suez Canal will resume, which is expected to have a positive impact on the market. As a result, higher volumes are anticipated in the coming months of June, July, and August. Meanwhile, the season in Colombia has already begun.
The United States is also sourcing from Latin America, but signs of oversupply are emerging. “There are active promotional campaigns in German food retail, but the spot market in particular is already coming under increasing pressure,” the importer adds.
France: Strong demand meets falling prices
There is a small supply of Spanish organic Hass avocados on the market, but in the case of conventional Hass avocados, Peru is the primary source. Demand remains strong and sales are proceeding smoothly. However, prices are declining due to the large volumes currently available. According to the operator interviewed, this situation may continue for several more weeks.
As early as April, at the beginning of the season, several French operators were already anticipating a rise in volumes. This contrasts with previous years when Peruvian production was lower, primarily as a result of El Niño. However, this ‘alternate’ season may come to an early end—about a month sooner than usual.
North America: South American volumes weigh on avocado prices
Avocado demand in North America has remained steady following Cinco de Mayo, a peak avocado consumption holiday, and is expected to continue at this level over the next two months. Seasonal events such as graduations, holidays, and generally improved weather conditions are helping to support demand.
Currently, the avocado supply is coming from four regions. California is experiencing a bumper crop, primarily consisting of smaller sizes. If current conditions persist, strong volumes from California are expected through September.
Mexico is nearing the end of its current “negra” crop, with supplies expected to decline moving into June. However, volumes are forecast to rise again in July with the arrival of the summer Loca crop, which typically yields decent quantities.
Peru and Colombia are also shipping fruit, though the quality is not yet optimal. It is expected to improve through June and July.
Despite this, the influx of South American fruit is putting pressure on the market. The effect on pricing will ultimately depend on demand: if demand remains stable while supply increases, prices are likely to decline.
Mexico: World’s top producer forecasts moderate seasonal growth
As the world’s largest avocado producer, Mexico is expecting a 5% increase in its upcoming season, equivalent to approximately 150 million additional kilos. The United States remains its primary export destination, accounting for more than 90% of Mexico’s avocado exports.
Peru: Delayed start and rising volumes shape 2025
The 2025 Peruvian Hass avocado season began later than in the previous year, starting in week 7 instead of week 3. Despite the delayed start, production volumes have increased. However, field prices have fallen, dropping from 7 to 6.50 soles per kilo (approximately €1.75 to €1.63).
The increase in volumes has placed pressure on European markets, particularly in Italy, where saturation has pushed prices down to as low as €9 per box. This has triggered a “price war,” impacting the entire supply chain. In response, Peru is actively seeking new markets in Asia and strengthening its presence in the United States to diversify its export base.
Although Peruvian avocados are subject to a base tariff of 10% in the U.S. market, they have remained competitive due to the high prices of Mexican avocados. This has resulted in a significant increase in exports to the United States.
Peruvian Hass avocado exports are projected to grow by 37% in 2025, following a difficult 2024 marked by adverse weather conditions and logistical challenges. This growth is credited to measures implemented by the industry to sustain operations under pressure.
Chile: Balancing domestic demand with imports and export strategy
Chile produced approximately 235 million kilos of avocados, of which 135 million were exported and 100 million were allocated to the domestic market. To meet strong internal demand, Chile also imported between 60 and 70 million kilos, primarily from Peru.
In Europe, during the summer season, prices for Chilean avocados ranged between €6 and €8 per box for top-quality fruit. This price range reflects the competitive pressure in the European market and underscores the importance of prioritizing quality and optimal ripeness to maintain market position.
Colombia: Year-round supply and new port aim to boost competitiveness
Colombia is working to establish itself as a reliable supplier in the avocado market, capitalizing on its nearly year-round production and strategic location to efficiently supply Europe, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada. These are key markets where Colombia currently faces logistical, commercial, and reputational challenges. While Mexico dominates the market with 99% of the supply, Colombia sees real potential for growth by focusing on quality, consistency, and a long-term strategic approach.
The country has approximately 55,000 hectares planted with Hass avocados, of which 38,000 are currently in production. One of the main obstacles remains logistical infrastructure, as the distance between production areas and ports raises costs and reduces export efficiency. The upcoming launch of operations at Puerto Antioquia is expected to help shorten transit times and improve supply chain performance.
China: Delayed shipments and low arrivals push prices up
Imported avocados in China have recently experienced sharp price increases. The price of size #20 Peruvian avocados rose from €18.70 to €22.40 per box, while Chilean avocados are currently selling for around €24.95 per box.
Traders report that Chilean avocado shipments are expected to conclude by the end of this month, with current arrivals showing good quality.
The price surge for Peruvian avocados is partly due to reduced arrivals and the delay of a major shipment. Two weeks ago, Peruvian avocados were priced between €14.95 and €16.15 per box, compared to today’s significantly higher levels. Traders expect prices to normalize next month.
So far, the quality of Peruvian avocados has been excellent, and no price drops related to quality issues are anticipated in the near term.
South Africa: Lower local supply supports higher prices
As a result of rain delays affecting the early harvest and causing quality issues, the volume of avocados delivered to the local market has been lower than last year. Consequently, local prices are stronger than during previous seasons at this time of year. The average price across sizes and varieties is R18 (€0.88) per kilogram, which is 34% higher than last year, according to a market analyst.
In South Africa, Fuerte avocados are priced R10 (€0.49) per kilogram higher than Hass avocados, contrary to global market trends.
Early harvesting regions have reported small fruit, a characteristic expected to apply to Peru’s avocados this year as well, resulting in increased competition. However, Peru’s avocado volumes remain significantly larger than South Africa’s.
South Africa’s total export volume is projected at 22.5 million 4-kilogram cartons, with the majority destined for Europe and the UK. Exporters are also actively exploring opportunities in China, while the Indian avocado market is currently under development.
Morocco: Second consecutive record-breaking year for volumes exported
The Moroccan avocado season concluded in April with a strong performance in terms of both production and exports. For the second consecutive year, the industry set a new export record, increasing shipments from 60,000 tons last season to between 100,000 and 110,000 tons this season. This marks the first time Moroccan avocado exports have surpassed the 100,000-ton threshold.
Favourable weather conditions played a key role, with the absence of violent winds, storms, or serious episodes of chergui (hot, dry winds). The season was also characterised by a high share of large-calibre fruit, giving Moroccan avocados a competitive edge.
Despite these successes, the season was disappointing from a pricing perspective. Average prices were between 21% and 35% lower than the previous season. This decline is attributed to the overall abundance of fruit and increased competition among Moroccan producers. A growers’ representative commented: “It has to be said that prices in recent seasons were very high and exceptional, and that prices in the season just ended better reflect the market and international competition. In any case, production areas and volumes are approaching saturation point, while consumption continues to rise, which will improve prices over the coming seasons.”
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