The sudden strengthening of the national currency, rising electricity prices, and sharp increases in labor costs are putting the competitiveness of Tajikistan’s fruit exports at serious risk, according to analysts from EastFruit.
Over the past few months, the Tajik somoni has unexpectedly appreciated against the US dollar. While the exchange rate at the beginning of the year was approximately 10.93 somoni per USD, by May 30, 2025, it had dropped to 9.9849 somoni per USD. This represents a nearly 9% appreciation of the national currency in a short time span. Local businesses, long accustomed to a gradual weakening of the somoni, were caught off guard by this development.
Simultaneously, on April 1, 2025, the government increased electricity tariffs. For businesses, the cost of one kilowatt-hour rose from 70.35 dirams to 80.90 dirams (excluding VAT) — a jump of more than 15%. This is particularly significant for fruit freezing and drying enterprises, where low electricity costs have traditionally been a key competitive advantage.
In addition, the average wage in Tajikistan continues to climb — especially in the agricultural sector. Fewer people are willing to work in fruit harvesting due to the physically demanding nature of the job and often harsh conditions. As a result, market participants report that in 2025, farmers are paying almost double the daily labor rate compared to the previous year. For a country where low-cost labor has been a cornerstone of export competitiveness, this presents a serious challenge.
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Due to the sharp increase in production costs, including for dried and frozen fruits, exporters are now struggling to find profitable markets. This may lead to a decline in export volumes and a significant drop in farmers’ incomes, as they may be forced to accept lower prices for their products.
Experts emphasize that to maintain competitiveness, Tajik exporters must invest in production efficiency, yield and quality improvement, energy-saving technologies, and automation to reduce labor dependence. Without these measures, the country risks losing its position in the global fruit market.
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