Serbia, still the world’s leading exporter of frozen raspberries in terms of value, is bracing for a challenging 2025 season marked by declining yields. According to EastFruit, key competitors of Serbia: Poland and Ukraine, which became a global leader by net exports in 2024, are hopeful for better prices during the season. However, both countries have also had a lot of problems with the weather impact on raspberry plantations.
According to Yulia Tymoshenko, head of the frozen fruit production project at “Tiferet”, Moldova, prices of frozen raspberries in Europe are very high already – around 4.6 euro per kg for the whole berries but they are very difficult to find. Will this high price get even higher, considering the problems with production in Serbia and other countries? EastFruit team is looking at several potential price development scenarios in this article.
Serbia’s Problems and Expectations
Raspberries — particularly from the Arilje region — have long fueled Serbia’s dominance in the global frozen fruit market. However, according to local raspberry market experts, adverse weather in the spring of 2025, disease pressures, and aging plantations are set to reduce output, creating a supply-demand imbalance that could drive prices to unprecedented levels.
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Agricultural experts predict a significant reduction in Serbia’s raspberry yields for 2025, with estimates suggesting a drop of 20-30% compared to average seasons. Some go as far as to say that the yield could be as low as 30 years ago, but this could be an exaggeration. Several factors are converging to create this shortfall:
- Adverse Weather Patterns: Unpredictable weather, including spring frosts and excessive rainfall, has damaged raspberry crops. Frosts in early 2025 harmed budding plants, while heavy rains increased the risk of fungal diseases like gray mold (Botrytis cinerea).
- Disease and Pest Pressures: Viral diseases, such as the Raspberry ringspot virus, are spreading through plantations, causing reduced yields, smaller fruits, and weakened plants. Pictures with severe damage to plantations are often shared by Serbian farmers and widely discussed on social media platforms. Aphids and nematodes exacerbate the problem, transmitting viruses that lead to discolored leaves and poor fruit quality.
- Aging Plantations: Many of Serbia’s raspberry fields are over a decade old, with declining productivity. The lack of investment in certified, disease-free seedlings has compounded yield losses.
- Shrinking Cultivation Area: Economic pressures, high input costs, and labor shortages have prompted some farmers to abandon raspberry production or switch to less labor-intensive crops, reducing the total acreage dedicated to raspberries. Many small farmers have seen more economic opportunities in cities than growing raspberries, which has contributed to the decline.
This confluence of challenges is expected to tighten supply significantly in 2025.
Serbian raspberry growers are anticipating prices of at least €3.5 per kilogram for their fresh berries, according to EastFruit’s market monitoring. This expectation would only be realized if frozen raspberry prices exceed €5.0-5.5 per kilogram. However, reaching this price level is not guaranteed, particularly considering the cyclical nature of frozen raspberry pricing.
Global Raspberry Price Impact
“Serbia focuses its production on summer bearing varieties of raspberries, which account for about 70% of total production, while in Poland they represent significant 40-50% of total production,” explains Andriy Yarmak, an economist at FAO’s Investment Centre. “Since these were exactly the varieties which got the most damage in both countries, prices of frozen raspberries in Europe may stay relatively high during the summer months.”
The situation differs in Ukraine, where autumn-bearing varieties predominate and weren’t significantly damaged. “Ukraine mostly grows autumn-bearing raspberries that escaped major damage, while summer varieties there will likely show much lower productivity compared to 2024,” Yarmak notes.
Despite farmers’ high price expectations, Yarmak warns that processors who purchase raspberries for freezing face significant risks this season. “In 2021, European frozen raspberry prices exceeded €4.5 per kilogram, similar to today’s levels. However, prices dropped dramatically over the following two years, accompanied by extremely low demand. For example, in early September 2023, Ukrainian procurement prices for fresh raspberries intended for freezing plummeted to just €0.30 per kilogram.”
This price collapse wasn’t primarily driven by production volumes but rather by shifting purchasing patterns in the food industry. “When raspberry prices climb too high, food manufacturers switch to much cheaper alternatives like strawberries and other fruits to reduce production costs. Producing yogurt with strawberries that cost 3-4 times less becomes significantly more profitable for dairy companies than using raspberries, prompting this substitution. These changes typically occur at year-end when companies develop budgets for the coming year,” Yarmak explains.
Despite the current tighter supply of summer raspberries and resulting high prices, there remains a substantial risk of price decline in the frozen raspberry segment starting from January 2026. This creates a precarious situation for freezing operators who may have to pay premium prices during procurement in the summer only to face losses in the second half of the season – a pattern previously observed in 2021/22, 2022/23, and earlier in 2017/18.
By the way, considering the production shortfalls in Poland and Serbia, it is very likely that Ukraine, which focuses on autumn bearing varieties, will become a global leader not just by volume of net exports but also by the total volume of exports of frozen raspberries in 2025/26.
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