EastFruit analysts highlight a sharp rise in procurement prices for raspberries destined for freezing in two of the largest exporting countries of this product – Ukraine and Serbia. Despite this, a significant price gap between the two countries persists, ensuring a much stronger competitive position for Ukraine in the 2025/26 season.
According to EastFruit’s price monitoring, as of July 4, 2025, procurement prices for frozen raspberries in Ukraine reached 85-95 UAH per kilogram, equivalent to €1.7-1.9/kg. Over just ten days, prices skyrocketed: the minimum price surged by 70%, the maximum by 36%, and the average price soared by an impressive 55%, reaching 92 UAH, or €1.84. The most significant increase was observed in the lowest-priced raspberries, indicating, on one hand, challenges in procuring raw materials and, on the other, relatively high prices for “gris” category raspberries.
In contrast, let’s examine the dynamics of raspberry procurement prices in Serbia, where just ten days ago, farmers were highly dissatisfied with the procurement price of €2.6 per kg – a level that Ukrainian farmers couldn’t achieve even after the recent sharp price surge. By July 4, the average procurement price for raspberries in certain Serbian regions had soared to an astonishing €5.20 per kg, with the national average ranging between €3.85-4.00/kg. This means that the already high price from ten days ago has increased by 1.5 to 2 times. Moreover, Serbian farmers are now earning 2.8 times more for their raspberries than their Ukrainian counterparts. However, most Serbian processors pay only half the price upon receipt, promising to settle the remainder by the end of the year, which underscores the precarious financial situation of raspberry processors in Serbia.
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The situation in the Serbian raspberry market resembles a price panic. At a procurement price of €5.2/kg, processors would need to sell frozen raspberries for at least €6.7/kg just to cover freezing, sorting, packaging, and other costs. Notably, such a price for frozen raspberries has never been seen on the global market. Even at the average price of €4/kg, the break-even point would be around €5.5/kg – a level previously observed in the market but followed by a severe price crash, leading to significant financial challenges in the fruit and berry freezing industry.
According to Andriy Yarmak, an economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), this price disparity poses significant risks to the sustainability of Serbia, the long-standing global leader in the frozen raspberry market. “Price cycles in the global raspberry market recur approximately every 4-5 years, driven by the elasticity of demand for frozen raspberries. Simply put, if raspberries become too expensive, a significant portion of their use in food products like smoothies, yogurts, confectionery, bakery items, and beverages can be replaced with other fruits or berries. For instance, despite rising trends, the price of frozen strawberries remains significantly lower than that of raspberries,” Yarmak explains.
Additionally, Yarmak points to the exchange rate dynamics between the euro and the dollar. “A substantial portion of Serbia’s raspberry exports goes to countries outside the Eurozone, including the USA, Canada, and others, where transactions are conducted in US dollars. Given the recent rapid depreciation of the dollar against the euro, €5.5 now equates to $6.5 per kg of raspberries, representing only the production cost without accounting for delivery. Selling raspberries at such a high price may prove challenging,” Yarmak notes.
Consequently, there is a risk that the rapidly rising prices for frozen raspberries could begin to decline as early as January 2026, once food manufacturers finalize new product formulations for 2026. In such a scenario, Serbian farmers may not receive the remaining half of their payments if Serbian processors are forced to sell below cost. Nevertheless, Ukrainian processors will likely remain highly competitive on the global market, even if raw material prices, which typically supply Ukrainian enterprises in the second half of August, rise slightly.
It’s worth noting that summer raspberries dominate the Serbian market, forming nearly the entire raw material base. In Ukraine, however, the focus is on primocane raspberries, with summer varieties accounting for only about 20% of the raw material base, primarily in lower price categories. Market experts do not rule out the possibility that prices for primocane raspberry varieties in Ukraine could reach 100-120 UAH (€2.0-2.4/kg). Even at this level, Ukrainian raspberries would remain far more competitive than the €4.0-5.2/kg promised to Serbian farmers.
In Ukraine, the highest raspberry prices (€1.7-1.9/kg) are observed in the Lviv region, while prices in the Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi regions are closer to the lower end of Lviv’s range (€1.7/kg). In Serbia, regions like Prijepolje and Valjevo maintain stable prices of €5.13-5.30/kg, while in Mirosaljci-Arilje, prices range from €3.85-4.00/kg. However, Ukraine still faces challenges in harvesting and freezing everbearing raspberries, with potential disruptions from weather, Russia’s aggression, ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure, and other unpredictable factors. For now, one thing is clear: Serbia has a shortage of raspberries, Ukraine has yet to begin its main processing season, and global frozen raspberry prices continue to rise.
