Next chapter of deep dive into blueberry markets by EastFruit team is devoted to Poland – European blueberry giant. Links to the previous blueberry market outlook publications: general global blueberry trends, Peru, Chile, Mexio and Spain, new aggressive blueberry exporters and Serbia.
Poland is one of the largest European exporters and it starts harvesting after Spain is well out of the market – in July. In terms of production, Poland’s growth over the last decade has been remarkable: the cultivated area doubled from about 5,800 hectares in 2018 to 11,900 hectares by 2022 (Examining the Polish blueberry market). Industry estimates put Poland’s annual blueberry production between 60,000 and 68,000 tons in recent years (Polish blueberry hub working on market diversification – EastFruit), making it one of the top five producing countries globally.
Yields of blueberries in Poland reportedly average around 5.7 tons/ha, which is below the global average (8.9 t/ha) and far below leaders like Peru (14 t/ha) according to the publication Examining the Polish blueberry market. This suggests room for yield improvement through better cultivars and practices. However, Poland’s expansion has largely come from many small-scale farms – the average plantation size is only 1.4 ha as of 2022. This fragmentation means much of Poland’s production is not highly industrialized, which can limit efficiency and export coordination.
Traditionally, Poland has been a major exporter of blueberries within Europe, sending fruit to markets like Germany, UK, and Scandinavia during its summer harvest. Typically, around 30% of Poland’s blueberry volume was exported with the rest consumed domestically and processed. But an interesting shift is occurring: Poland’s domestic consumption has risen, and it has started importing off-season blueberries, narrowing the net export gap. The 30% estimate might actually be overrated, as significant and growing share of Poland’s fresh blueberry exports is represented by Ukraine’s blueberries, which Poland imports for the purpose of re-exports. Ukraine has a longer harvesting season of blueberries, can offer more competitive prices and high quality, which represents is a good opportunity for Polish exporters to remain more competitive. However, lately Ukrainian companies prefer to export blueberries directly rather than selling to Polish traders.
Read also: From Ukrainian Fields to Global Markets: Ukrainian Blueberry Producers Unite Despite the War
In the 2022/2023 period, Poland’s blueberry trade balance by value actually turned slightly negative – imports exceeded exports by about €6.4 million. With strong domestic market demand, growing consumer incomes and strong trend for healthier lifestyle, Poland is likely to become a net importer of blueberries due to growing imports outside of domestic harvesting season. Poles are eating more blueberries year-round, importing from Spain, Morocco, Peru, or South Africa in the off months, while Poland’s own exports each summer have plateaued. This is a sign of a maturing market – strong domestic demand keeps more fruit at home, and the easy export growth has slowed now that Poland’s output is no longer scarce in Europe.
Still, Poland remains a significant exporter in July-August, particularly to fill gaps in Western Europe between local crops. Polish blueberries often hit the market just after Spain and Portugal finish and before the UK and German seasons peak, giving a window of opportunity.
However, challenges abound. 2023 was reportedly a “complicated” season for Polish growers. Weather issues (frosts or droughts) can impact yield and quality in any given year. Moreover, the global price pressure is felt in Poland as well. Rising production costs in Poland while blueberry prices stagnate reduces margins of blueberry business, which is a problem for Poland where average size of farm is very small. Polish growers have had to focus on efficiency and intensive varietal exchange to stay competitive. Many are upgrading to newer varieties that can be harvested more efficiently, even mechanically, or offer better yields. The push for mechanization is notable, since Poland’s labor costs are rising and finding sufficient pickers is getting harder. Many Polish workers have other opportunities in the improved economy or abroad. With mostly small farms, collective efforts through producer groups or cooperatives are needed to invest in shared sorting/packing facilities and marketing.
Through 2030, Poland’s blueberry industry may reach a turning point. It has the growing area to substantially increase output if yields improve. But if prices remain low, some smaller growers may exit or switch crops, slowing growth. The likely scenario is a stabilization of production around the current levels, with perhaps slight increases. Poland might produce ~70,000+ tons by 2030 if all goes well, but a larger share of that could be consumed domestically or processed.
EastFruit team see Poland export less as a percentage of its crop, focusing on the fresh domestic market. Also, volumes of re-exports of Ukraine’s blueberries could drop, contributing to the downward trend in overall exports.
In 2023 Polish blueberries were allowed into China. However, this is unlikely to be a significant opportunity considering growing production and exports of blueberries from China. All told, Poland will continue to be an important mid-summer supplier and one of Europe’s top producers, but its role in global export rankings might slip as it becomes more inward-focused and as countries like China, Mexico, Ukraine and many smaller market players from various climatic zones climb the ranks.
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