Rising costs for fuel, energy, transportation and packaging are once again increasing pressure on Europe’s fruit and vegetable business. Greenhouse vegetables, perishable imports and categories with high logistics intensity are expected to be among the first affected, according to EastFruit.
For the European fresh produce sector, early April 2026 marks a turning point where cost structures have once again come sharply into focus. After a period of relative stabilisation, the market is now facing simultaneous increases in energy prices, fuel, transportation, packaging and certain production inputs.
This is particularly critical for the fresh segment, where even modest increases in logistics or storage costs can quickly reshape the commercial viability of supply chains.
As reported by Reuters, the UK’s Food and Drink Federation has already revised its food inflation forecast for 2026, now warning it could approach 10% by the end of the year, compared to previous expectations of around 3.2%. According to the organisation, the pressure is driven by disruptions in oil, gas and fertiliser supplies, as well as rising transportation costs. Producers also note that greenhouse vegetables, including tomatoes and cucumbers, are likely to be among the first categories to feel the impact.
This is no longer a localised issue confined to the UK. Citing PMI data, Reuters reports that eurozone manufacturers in March recorded the sharpest acceleration in input cost inflation since October 2022, with companies increasingly passing these costs on through higher selling prices. At the same time, UK manufacturers experienced the steepest monthly increase in production costs since 1992.
For the fresh produce supply chain, this is a critical signal: not only is production becoming more expensive, but so is the entire operating environment, including storage, packaging, transport and distribution.
According to Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East could intensify in April and begin to weigh more heavily on the European economy in the coming weeks. For the fresh produce sector, this goes far beyond higher fuel prices.
Energy underpins virtually every stage of the value chain — greenhouse operations, cooling, post-harvest handling, cold storage, sorting, packaging and the broader cold chain infrastructure. As diesel and energy costs rise, the impact is felt simultaneously across multiple cost centres.
Another major transmission channel for this cost shock is international logistics. As reported by FreshPlaza, citing Drewry Airfreight Insight, air freight rates on several international routes increased by up to 95% between February and March 2026, while fuel surcharges surged significantly on certain lanes.
Although air freight is not central for bulk vegetable categories, it plays a critical role in berries, premium perishable products, exotics and time-sensitive shipments — where it is now becoming a direct pressure point on both pricing and margins.
Market participants themselves are also signalling a broad-based increase in costs across the supply chain. According to Fruitimprese (cited by FreshPlaza), the sector is experiencing a sharp rise in energy and fuel costs, widespread use of additional surcharges in maritime transport, longer transit times and higher road transport costs — partly linked to automatic diesel price indexation. This is no longer routine market volatility, but rather an external shock that is reshaping the economics of import and distribution.
Another factor that remains somewhat underestimated is packaging. Disruptions in petrochemical supply chains have already pushed plastic prices to their highest levels in approximately four years. For the fresh produce sector, this is particularly relevant in categories with a high share of packaging solutions, such as berries, pre-packed vegetables, grapes, salads and export shipments with strict retail and presentation requirements.
However, this does not mean that prices across all fruit and vegetable categories in Europe will increase simultaneously or uniformly. “Rather, the market will move through differentiation by category. The most vulnerable segments are greenhouse vegetables, long-distance imports and products heavily dependent on cold chain logistics, packaging and time-sensitive delivery. More resilient categories will be those entering the local season, with shorter supply chains or where part of the cost pressure is still being absorbed through long-term contracts. But the broader direction is already clear: the fruit and vegetable sector is once again entering a phase where pricing is increasingly determined not only by урожай and demand, but by energy, fuel and logistics costs. And these factors are now becoming decisive in determining who remains competitive in the market — and who does not,” said Kateryna Zvierieva, Development Director of the Ukrainian Horticulture Association.
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